MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has sanctioned a comprehensive long-range coal development strategy that aims for an annual production of 662 million tonnes by 2050, based on its projected scenario. This initiative extends the nation’s coal policies through the middle of the century. In 2024, Russia produced approximately 443 million tonnes of coal, making the new target a significant uplift from current levels. The government approved this framework under Order No. 2606-r, issued on September 22, 2026.
Rather than a single forecast, the plan outlines multiple production trajectories. The target scenario estimates output at 530.1 million tonnes in 2030, escalating to 595.2 million tonnes in 2036, and reaching 662 million tonnes in 2050. Alternative scenarios project lower totals for the final year. The stress scenario anticipates 318.9 million tonnes, while a conservative outlook suggests 460.8 million tonnes. An inertial scenario forecasts about 586.4 million tonnes.
Long-term export targets are also integral to the programme. Under the target scenario, exports are expected to hit 266.7 million tonnes in 2030 and increase to 320.2 million tonnes by 2036, eventually reaching 350.1 million tonnes in 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan additionally addresses domestic consumption, processing capacity, extraction techniques, and regional output.
Eastern Siberia and Russian Far East to Play Larger Role in Production
The government’s strategy allocates a greater portion of coal production to Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East. These regions contributed 48.3% of Russia’s total output in 2024. By 2050, their combined share is projected to range between 53.9% and 56.7%, depending on the scenario. Russia reports having more than 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves. The programme emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while expanding resource areas to meet future production goals.
Coal extraction and processing methods are assigned separate quantitative targets in the plan. In 2024, processed coal—excluding lignite—accounted for 58.9% of total output. The strategy aims to boost this figure to between 74% and 76% by 2050. Open-pit mining produced 78.4% of Russian coal in 2024, and projections indicate this will increase to between 82% and 85% under long-term targets. The plan also incorporates initiatives related to labor efficiency, mining technology, safety standards, and environmental regulations.
Three-Phase Approach Guides Implementation to 2050
Russia will roll out the coal strategy in three distinct phases. The first phase spans up to 2030, focusing on immediate industry development and production initiatives. The second phase covers 2031 to 2036, with goals centered on processing, coal utilization, and transportation infrastructure. The final phase extends from 2037 until 2050. The Energy Ministry will oversee execution in collaboration with other federal and regional authorities, providing yearly progress updates to the Ministry of Economic Development as mandated by the government.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin unveiled the updated plan during a government session on September 21. It replaces the earlier coal industry strategy through 2035, approved in 2020. Novak stated that the new plan anticipates a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with a multiplier effect approaching nearly 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne goal remains the target-scenario figure, with alternative pathways also included in the strategy.