ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that worldwide cereal production will reach roughly 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026. This figure signifies a 2% decrease from the record harvest achieved in 2025. The projection is also 3.4 million tonnes lower than the earlier estimate. Despite this yearly reduction, global cereal output is expected to be the second-highest on record, with a decrease of about 61.1 million tonnes compared to the previous year.
Much of this downward trend is due to weaker maize prospects, with production predicted at 1.309 billion tonnes. Unfavorable hot and dry conditions have lowered yield expectations across parts of the European Union. France and Poland experienced some of the most significant downward revisions. Smaller reductions also affected India and Paraguay, while improved yields in Argentina and Brazil partially offset these declines. Both South American producers are on track for maize yields well above recent averages.
The outlook for wheat has improved compared to previous assessments, although global production still trails behind last year’s figures. The Food and Agriculture Organization now projects wheat output at 810.7 million tonnes, reflecting an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from its prior forecast. Improved yield expectations boosted forecasts for Canada and Morocco. Additionally, projections rose for Russia and Ukraine, whereas dry conditions in the European Union and United Kingdom led to lower estimates. Overall, global wheat production remains 3.8% below 2025 levels.
Maize setbacks weigh heavily on worldwide grain production
For the 2026/27 season, global rice production is forecasted at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, marking a 1.9% decline from the revised record of the previous season. Improved yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka contributed to this outlook. However, these gains could not fully compensate for weaker projections in China, the Philippines, and the United States. In particular, U.S. rice acreage has fallen to levels not seen in decades, reducing the country’s expected contribution to the global supply.
Anticipated worldwide cereal utilization is set at 2.965 billion tonnes for 2026/27, representing a 0.2% increase from the prior season. Consumption of coarse grains and rice is expected to grow, but wheat usage is projected to decline from last season’s high levels. Global rice consumption is estimated at 559 million tonnes, driven by rising food demand associated with population growth. Coarse grain consumption is also supported by feed demand, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Stockpiles remain elevated despite downward revisions in outlook
Global cereal stocks at the end of the 2027 seasons are projected at 947.2 million tonnes. This estimate is 10.7 million tonnes lower than the previous projection but still 1.8 million tonnes higher than the opening levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to reach 31.6%, slightly below last season’s 31.9%. Wheat reserves are forecasted to grow in Russia and Ukraine, while reductions in maize and barley inventories primarily contribute to the overall decline in stock estimates.
International cereal trade for 2026/27 is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, representing a 1.7 million tonne increase from the previous estimate. Despite this rise, trade volume remains below the record levels seen in 2025/26. The increase is largely driven by higher maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship as much as 39 million tonnes. Global rice trade for 2026 is estimated at 60.5 million tonnes, which is 1.9% below the record set during 2025.